Australia's almond industry is going nuts.
The almond sector is entering a new era as it begins large-scale orchard replanting to enable future growth and satisfy increasing local and global appetite, Rabobank says in a newly-released report.
In its Australian Almond Outlook: Replanting for Growth Beyond 2030, the specialist agribusiness bank’s RaboResearch division says the Australian almond industry is “entering a pivotal transition phase” with renewal of ageing orchards and expansion into new areas.
“The next five years will begin the first large-scale replanting cycle that (along with expansion into new regions) sets the foundation for long-term growth in the Australian almond industry,” the report says.
This could see total planted area of almonds in Australia lift by between 5000 and 10,000 hectares [the equivalent of seven to 15% growth in total area] by 2030, it says.
Meanwhile, positive global demand for almonds - coupled with limited production growth in California, the world’s largest almond producer and Australia’s main export competitor - should contribute to an improving market outlook, RaboResearch says, “offering opportunities for the Australian industry to grow its share of the global market”.
The report's author, RaboResearch analyst Pia Piggott (top image), says the next five years will see the first large-scale replanting occur in Australia’s burgeoning almond industry, with many of the sector’s first-established 10,000 hectares of almond trees planted between 2001 to 2005 reaching the end of their productive life between now and 2030.
“This represents approximately 16% of the total area of Australian almonds in 2024, which will require replanting over the next five years,” she said.
On top of this, some of an additional 13,000 hectares of almond trees planted between 2006 and 2010 are also expected to need replanting in the coming five years as the productivity of older plants declines.
While the replanting effort may flatten production levels from now to 2030, longer term it should support further production growth for the industry, Piggott says.
In its Australian Almond Outlook: Replanting for Growth Beyond 2030, the specialist agribusiness bank’s RaboResearch division says the Australian almond industry is “entering a pivotal transition phase” with renewal of ageing orchards and expansion into new areas.
“The next five years will begin the first large-scale replanting cycle that (along with expansion into new regions) sets the foundation for long-term growth in the Australian almond industry,” the report says.
This could see total planted area of almonds in Australia lift by between 5000 and 10,000 hectares [the equivalent of seven to 15% growth in total area] by 2030, it says.
Meanwhile, positive global demand for almonds - coupled with limited production growth in California, the world’s largest almond producer and Australia’s main export competitor - should contribute to an improving market outlook, RaboResearch says, “offering opportunities for the Australian industry to grow its share of the global market”.
The report's author, RaboResearch analyst Pia Piggott (top image), says the next five years will see the first large-scale replanting occur in Australia’s burgeoning almond industry, with many of the sector’s first-established 10,000 hectares of almond trees planted between 2001 to 2005 reaching the end of their productive life between now and 2030.
“This represents approximately 16% of the total area of Australian almonds in 2024, which will require replanting over the next five years,” she said.
On top of this, some of an additional 13,000 hectares of almond trees planted between 2006 and 2010 are also expected to need replanting in the coming five years as the productivity of older plants declines.
While the replanting effort may flatten production levels from now to 2030, longer term it should support further production growth for the industry, Piggott says.
“And we expect to see further orchard developments as almonds will likely continue to be one of the highest-value use cases for water in the southern Murray Darling Basin,” she said.
The report noted Australian almond production in 2025 was down 4.6% on the previous year to 155,697 tonnes KWE. This, however, was still up 19% on the five-year average, Piggott said.
The report noted Australian almond production in 2025 was down 4.6% on the previous year to 155,697 tonnes KWE. This, however, was still up 19% on the five-year average, Piggott said.
